SWOD48
SPC AC 160954
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST...WITH
HANDLING OF TWO EJECTING SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGHS EMANATING FROM
THE WRN CONUS.
THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH DAY 4 /SUN. 11-20/...SHUNTED ALONG THIS NELY TRACK BY A
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/GULF
OF MEXICO. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKEWISE TRACK
QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY AND SWD INTO OK/TX.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES ENEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DAY 5...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND...BUT
MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY AND SWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIRMASS FROM MO SWWD INTO
OK/TX...THREAT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A THREAT AREA ATTM.
THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD OFF THE CA COAST
DAY 5. THIS FEATURE IS THEN PROGGED TO TURN EWD DAY 6 AND MOVE
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ADJACENT NRN MEXICO -- EVENTUALLY INDUCING
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS INVOF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DAY 7...ADDITIONAL
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED...WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SERN
OK/E TX/AR/LA VICINITY LATE DAY 7/EARLY DAY 8. AGAIN -- SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
EVOLUTION...BUT DEGREE OF THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM --
PRECLUDING INTRODUCTION OF ANY LATE-PERIOD OUTLOOK AREAS.
..GOSS.. 11/16/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment