Tuesday, November 22, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220919
SWOD48
SPC AC 220918

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO MOVE ASHORE CA/BAJA DAY-3 SHOULD MOVE
EWD OVER NWRN MEX/SWRN CONUS. WHILE LESS EARLY SPREAD IS APPARENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES...SUBSTANTIAL
VARIATION STILL IS EVIDENT BETWEEN ECMWF...SPECTRAL AND MREF MEMBERS
WITH SHAPE/AMPLITUDE/SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING BY EARLY
DAY-4/25TH-26TH. FOR EXAMPLE...BY 26/00Z...LOCATION OF PRIMARY
VORTICITY LOBE OF OPEN WAVE...OR LOW POSITION IF CLOSED
CYCLONE...VARIES FROM PROGRESSIVE OVER TX PANHANDLE TO STALLED
ACROSS NRN BAJA. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO EXTENT OF NRN/SRN
STREAM PHASING DAYS 3-4...WITH ONLY MINOR SEPARATIONS AT DAY-3
LEADING TO GREAT DIFFERENCES BY DAY-5/26TH-27TH. AS SUCH...SOME
LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MREF...ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
IN ECMWF ENSEMBLE. PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM SCENARIOS STILL INDICATE
SOME SVR POTENTIAL OVER WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST/DELTA REGION DAY-5.
HOWEVER...GIVEN GREAT VOLATILITY IN PROGS...30% UNCONDITIONAL SVR
AREA IS NOT YET WARRANTED.

..EDWARDS.. 11/22/2011

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