SWOD48
SPC AC 240919
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CST THU NOV 24 2011
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD TO NRN
GULF BY START OF PERIOD...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-2/DAY-3
OUTLOOKS. ACCOMPANYING 500-MB CYCLONE ALSO APPEARS
PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AS
SUGGESTED BY OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/UKMET AND MOST MREF MEMBERS.
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SRN/SLOW OUTLIER WITH LOW POSITION OVER ARKLATEX
BY 28/00Z AND...GIVEN ITS RECENT TENDENCIES TO CUT OFF LOWS ALOFT
TOO QUICKLY IN THIS PREVAILING LONGWAVE PATTERN...CARRIES LITTLE
WEIGHT FOR THIS FCST.
BAND OF CONVECTION MAY ACCOMPANY RELATED STG COLD FRONT
DAY-4/26TH-27TH OVER PORTIONS MIDDLE/SRN ATLC COAST STATES AND
FL...HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN FROM GULF/ATLANTIC AHEAD OF FRONT
APPEARS TOO SCANT TO SUPPORT UNCONDITIONAL 30% SVR RISK ATTM.
AFTERWARD...STG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SERN CONUS AND GULF SHOULD
PRECLUDE ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING TO SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AT LEAST.
..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2011
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