SWOD48
SPC AC 260830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD NOTED IN THE D3 OUTLOOK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST IMPACTS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DETAILS
AT 12Z/TUE. EVEN SO...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CNTRL CONUS. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT...POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE TSTM AREA ON TUE IN THE
CAROLINAS/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL NWLYS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF REGION SHOULD RENDER NEGLIGIBLE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES BEYOND D4.
..GRAMS.. 11/26/2011
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