Monday, November 28, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280856
SWOD48
SPC AC 280856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CST MON NOV 28 2011

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE SWRN CONUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES WANE WITH TIME...TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE WEEKEND TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF A CP AIR MASS OVER THE GULF
REGION IN PRECEDING DAYS AND LACK OF A ROBUST SRN STREAM IMPULSE
ENTERING THE S-CNTRL CONUS INFERS THAT A MOISTURE-RICH GULF AIR MASS
MAY NOT PENETRATE MUCH BEYOND THE WRN GULF COAST. AS SUCH...A 30
PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE THREAT AREA IS NOT APPARENT ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 11/28/2011

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