SWOD48
SPC AC 290936
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/CMC AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE SWRN
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER CO
VALLEY SHOULD EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL STATES DURING D4-5...AS A
SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGS SWD ACROSS THE WEST AND REINFORCES THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...WHILE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE AND IS PREFERRED STRONGLY
COMPARED TO NCEP GUIDANCE /SEE PREEPD FROM HPC/. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DEVELOPS A MORE SLY SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SAT/D5
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WRN GULF STATES AS KINEMATIC FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVER A MODIFYING
CP AIR MASS. EVEN SO...THIS SETUP WOULD NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A 30
PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE AREA.
..GRAMS.. 11/29/2011
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