SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152149
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...ERN TX...SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152149Z - 152345Z
STORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER SERN OK...NERN TX AND INTO SWRN AR.
THE STRONGER CORES MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK
WITH MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE E. MEANWHILE...AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REMAINED FROM E CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS...WITH COOL STABLE AIR
TO THE N.
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS FORMED OVER NERN TX AND SERN OK
WHERE HEATING OCCURRED N OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES IS RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.
DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS EXISTS OVER TX AND
OK...INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT BECOMING
INEFFECTIVE FOR UNSTABLE PARCELS N OF I-40. AS THE FEATURE OVER SERN
TX CONTINUES EWD...MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT OVER
THE ARKLATEX. STILL...SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WARRANT A WEATHER WATCH.
..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34929396 34499325 34299271 33849271 33299322 33119376
33009424 32949504 32939585 33149616 33589614 34049567
34599500 34979447 35009424 34929396
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