Tuesday, November 15, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2326

ACUS11 KWNS 152345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152344
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SE TX...CENTRAL/SRN LA...EXTREME
SWRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152344Z - 160045Z

LOCALLY TIME-EXTENDED PORTIONS WW 885 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z
ALONG AND W OF SABINE RIVER. ALTHOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED
IN TERMS OF DENSITY OF SVR...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
SPORADIC/WIDELY DISPERSED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE BEYOND
00Z...PERHAPS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS REGIME SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS
LA. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

BKN BAND OF TSTMS--MOST NON-SVR BUT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED/EPISODIC
CIRCULATIONS--CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME SE TX AND WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS CENTRAL...WRN SND SRN LA. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
PRE-STORM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR
OVER CENTRAL-NERN LA...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F.
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE/THETAE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL/SWRN LA
TRENDING TO SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S JUST N OF I-10 AND 70S FARTHER
S. THIS GRADIENT ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ONE IN MLCINH...BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...WHERE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING ARE EVIDENT FOR SFC DEW POINTS
HIGHER THAN ABOUT 67 F. IN THAT AIR MASS...ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY
ROTATE WITH LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL...GIVEN FAVORABLE PRE-STORM
PROFILES OF VERTICAL SHEAR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE 60-65 KT WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND
100-300 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 29719368 30139394 30749378 31399402 31819191 31459144
31099119 29179107 29409155 29379118 29549143 29479161
29659156 29659166 29489180 29579213 29529231 29569272
29769321 29719368

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