SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160735
ALZ000-MSZ000-160930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH CNTRL MS AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 160735Z - 160930Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
FROM SRN-CNTRL MS TO CNTRL-NRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
EARLY THIS MORNING A RATHER BROAD AND MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF MS AND AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. SPECIAL 06Z BIRMINGHAM RAOB INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT
MODEST LAPSE RATES AND A SHALLOW STABLE AT THE SURFACE. AREAS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM
SECTOR. A SWLY LLJ IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING OVER SRN MS
AND WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH AL THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EJECTING BUT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO
BE TIME OF DAY AND TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE
THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...AT LEAST A MODEST INFLUX OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND
UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO INGEST THE
HELICITY RICH AIR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...AND IF
STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED.
..DIAL.. 11/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 34518647 33798554 32688541 31828612 31228827 31058992
31449074 33098972 34338819 34518647
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