SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161133
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SERN THROUGH E-CNTRL MS...W-CNTRL THROUGH
N-CNTRL AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 887...888...
VALID 161133Z - 161300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 887...888...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SERN
LA THROUGH SERN AND E-CNTRL MS INTO W-CNTRL AL...THOUGH GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS FROM NOW THROUGH 14Z FROM A PORTION OF SERN LA INTO
SERN MS...AND SPREADING INTO W-CNTRL AL.
STRONGEST AND MOST ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS
PERSIST FROM SERN LA INTO SERN MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND FORCING FOR DEEPER
ASCENT RESULTING FROM AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS
EXIST WHERE THE LARGEST HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT LLJ ARE
COINCIDENT WITH PRIMARY THETA-E AXIS. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 14Z FROM SERN LA INTO SERN MS AND
W-CNTRL AL BEFORE THE EJECTING WAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT NE OF PRIMARY
MOIST AXIS.
..DIAL.. 11/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30859057 32838904 33918797 34088694 33678659 31088874
29398938 29179033 29359114 30859057
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