MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2330

ACUS11 KWNS 161325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161325
GAZ000-ALZ000-161500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH ERN AL...AND W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161325Z - 161500Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND THROUGH SRN/ERN AL INTO W-CNTRL GA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SOON.

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AL INTO
CNTRL GA WHERE SOUTH OF A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY MLCAPE FROM 500-1000
J/KG EXISTS. 12Z RAOBS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA SHOW ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED
WITH EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT OF DIABATIC WARMING. BAND OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING WAVE WILL
SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF ERN AL AND EVENTUALLY GA. THE ATTENDANT LLJ WILL
MAINTAIN LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33858468 33398413 32018513 31148668 31428740 33128659
33818579 33858468

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