SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162145
VAZ000-NCZ000-162315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...NERN NC...
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162145Z - 162315Z
A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BECOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TIME...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED INTO
SERN VA AND NERN NC S OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. AREA WIND PROFILERS SHOW
VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT.
A MODERATE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING....SO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MAY BE MINOR. WEAK FORCING
CURRENTLY MAKES IN SITU STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT
STORMS UPSTREAM MAY STILL HAVE A SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 11/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 35957511 35217603 35297695 35797733 36647853 37117792
37597692 37727581 37577550 36857573 36327551 35957511
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