SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162235
GAZ000-FLZ000-170000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND SERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162235Z - 170000Z
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 890 WILL
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SERN GA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS GA HAS FOR THE
MOST PART REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR DECREASING WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BASED ON VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL WSR 88-D/S. THAT BEING SAID...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN
FL INTO SERN GA. VWP DATA ONLY SHOWED SLIGHT VEERING OF PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST KM SO THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED
GIVEN THIS FACT IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE WATCH ISSUANCES.
..LEITMAN.. 11/16/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29668506 30418500 30928430 31308329 31878242 31828176
31748135 31668124 31368119 31168130 30718143 30258137
30008133 29888186 29698232 29578299 29648337 29778359
29978381 30068419 29908437 29668506
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