SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170023
VAZ000-170130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 170023Z - 170130Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE INCREASING THIS EVENING...A TORNADO
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA.
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS REFLECT A RECENT INCREASE IN LINEAR-TYPE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...GENERALLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE
DANVILLE AREA AS OF 0015Z. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...THE PRESENCE OF A NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE
LOW /WITH ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS/ AND HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD REFLECT CONCERN FOR A SUSTAINED QLCS WITH
POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
MATURE/DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CONTINUED INCREASING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GUYER.. 11/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 36587946 37507856 38007763 37187607 36587627 36587946
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