Tuesday, November 22, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2352

ACUS11 KWNS 220746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220746
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...NRN LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 894...

VALID 220746Z - 220845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 894 CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA INTO WRN MS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM MO SWD INTO AR WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BACK OVER THE
SRN PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES
ARE SUPPORTING STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FROM NE AR SWWD INTO NE TX. AHEAD OF THE NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE LINE/RAINSHIELD...MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED
IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE
PRESENT ACCORDING TO WSR-88D VWPS SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD STILL OCCUR WITH SHORT BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 11/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33949513 33549443 33579410 33539399 33629384 33469371
33499348 33439342 33459315 33369307 33359259 33509276
33599270 33779253 33769232 33689231 33699202 33789198
33789159 33999156 34029141 33959120 34069120 34209100
34379099 34989109 35009124 34919125 34909133 35029135
35099158 35039162 35079207 34999211 34999221 34879222
34859242 34929248 34879274 34829275 34899309 34789309
34709386 34729445 34549446 34479505 34269503 34219514
33949513

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