Thursday, December 15, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151226
SWODY1
SPC AC 151224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO...ACROSS TX/OK...INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. BENEATH THIS
FLOW REGIME...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS TX/AR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM CENTRAL TX INTO
WEST TN. NEW STORMS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO RECENTLY FORM OVER NORTH TX
AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
FOR SOME RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND
AND/OR NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SAGS ACROSS THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
RISK AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM PRODUCING SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING OVER NORTH TX...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES. OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE FORECAST.

..HART/GARNER.. 12/15/2011

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