SWODY1
SPC AC 161226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2011
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXISTING SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL TRANSITION TO A NRN STREAM-DOMINANT
PATTERN AS CLOSED LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA CA CONTINUES SLOWLY SWD AND
BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS THAT WILL
PERSIST FROM THE CANADIAN RCKYS TO THE MID MS VLY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING AR SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT ACCELERATES ENE IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE TN/OH VLYS. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS GULF
CST/SERN STATES.
...LA INTO TN VLY...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ATTM ALONG AND N OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IN CNTRL LA...WHERE WEAK NEAR-SFC BASED BUOYANCY EXISTS WITHIN
CORE OF ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE PLUME /PW AROUND 1.25
INCHES/...AND ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED ON SRN FRINGE OF DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. OTHER STORMS ARE PRESENT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
UPR DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NE AWAY FROM REGION. WHILE SOME MID LVL
CONVECTION MAY PRECEDE THE DISTURBANCE OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...DEPTH OF UNSTABLE LAYER AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING EXPECTED WEAKENING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
...SRN CA/SRN AZ...
COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA
AND SW AZ TODAY...IN NE QUADRANT OF SLOW MOVING UPR LOW. BUT
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES OFF THE PLATEAU WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A FEW DIURNAL
BUILDUPS MAY APPEAR OVER THE FAR SRN CA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN...ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLD.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/16/2011
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