SWODY1
SPC AC 171235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2011
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN UPR PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS CUT OFF LOW
LINGERS OFF THE NRN CST OF BAJA CA...WELL REMOVED FROM MAIN BAND OF
THE WLYS THAT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CANADIAN RCKYS ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS AND MID MS VLY TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE BAJA LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO EDGE ENE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS N PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
NOW CROSSING 140W REACHES WA/ORE. AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SC SWWD INTO THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE STEADILY SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
...SW U.S...
BAND OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BAJA LOW WILL
REMAIN MAINLY S OF THE MEXICAN BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID LVL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD FAR SRN CA AND SW
AZ AFTER ABOUT 06Z SUN AS UPR LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ENEWD. ARRIVAL OF
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF UPR DIFFLUENCE/ASCENT IN
NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW MAY YIELD A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD LTG
STRIKES. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY /WITH MUCAPE AOB
50 J PER KG/...SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
ADDITION OF A CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA.
OTHERWISE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER ALONG FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/17/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment