SWODY1
SPC AC 241548
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 AM CST SAT DEC 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...FAR SRN AR...
SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z SHOW 850-700 MB
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL TX AHEAD OF A COLD
CORE MIDLEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER FAR W TX. IN ADDITION...OBSERVED
RAOBS OVER TX INDICATE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE
REGION...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN BY
EVENING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100-200
J/KG ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN TX
FROM 20-04Z...AND THEN SHIFT INTO WRN/NRN LA AND FAR SRN AR BETWEEN
04-12Z...AT WHICH POINT LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS COLDER EL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
..GARNER/HART.. 12/24/2011
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