SWODY1
SPC AC 031245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2011
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN NM/WRN TX WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TODAY WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL
FLOW REGIME OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SRN NV WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD
THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE
OVER W-CNTRL TX WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NNEWD ALONG RETREATING SURFACE
FRONT IN THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE REACHING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 04/12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SWD/SEWD THROUGH OK AND WRN/NRN TX.
...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
DCVA AND AN AXIS OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRECEDING SRN
HIGH PLAINS IMPULSE HAVE COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME TO FOSTER A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS
WHICH EXTENDED FROM SWRN KS TO W-CNTRL TX AS OF 12Z. LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN KS...OK AND NRN AND
CNTRL TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT PERHAPS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS PEAKING AT THIS TIME OVER THE TX BIG COUNTRY
AS THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE GLANCES THE HIGHER PW AIR MASS RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX/SRN OK WHERE POCKETS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY DECREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE VERY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
...AZ...
THOUGH AIR MASS HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF GREAT BASIN SYSTEM
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/03/2011
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