SWODY1
SPC AC 242000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2011
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH COMBINATION OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY
MEAGER INSTABILITY TO YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION AND EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 12/24/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0948 AM CST SAT DEC 24 2011/
...ERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...FAR SRN AR...
SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT 12Z SHOW 850-700 MB
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS COASTAL TX AHEAD OF A COLD
CORE MIDLEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER FAR W TX. IN ADDITION...OBSERVED
RAOBS OVER TX INDICATE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE
REGION...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN BY
EVENING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 100-200
J/KG ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN TX
FROM 20-04Z...AND THEN SHIFT INTO WRN/NRN LA AND FAR SRN AR BETWEEN
04-12Z...AT WHICH POINT LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS COLDER EL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment