Sunday, December 18, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181553
SWODY1
SPC AC 181552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO AND
SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN NM INTO WRN TX.

...LOWER CO VALLEY INTO WRN TX/SWRN OK...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF
DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING UPPER LOW. THOUGH THE AMBIENT AIR MASS
IS NOT OVERLY MOIST /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA/...THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WRN EDGE OF STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SYSTEM TODAY OVER WRN TX WHERE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL ALIGN WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WRN EXTENT
OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURNING FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 12/18/2011

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