SWODY1
SPC AC 130044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHWEST...
CLOSED LOW CENTERED W OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL MOVE SSEWD
TONIGHT TO OFFSHORE THE SRN CA/FAR NRN BAJA COASTAL REGION BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE SRN TO ERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CLOSED LOW. A
LEAD WAVE HAD LIFTED WELL N INTO NERN NV/NWRN UT...WHILE THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WAS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SRN CA TO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY AND HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ASCENT/STEEP LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ALSO WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCATED OFF THE SRN CA
COAST /225 SSW SBA/ WILL MOVE INLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO THE CLOSED LOW AND SRN
EXTENT OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES FROM OFF THE SRN COAST TO WRN AZ. THIS COMBINED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SRN CA AND OFFSHORE IMPULSES
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL GENERAL TSTM
COVERAGE TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AND PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 12/13/2011
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