SWODY1
SPC AC 151954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST THU DEC 15 2011
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ASIDE FROM MODEST CHANGES TO THE GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AREA...PRIOR
REASONING UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS BELOW.
..GUYER.. 12/15/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST THU DEC 15 2011/
...SRN PLAINS TO THE TN RVR VLY...
12Z UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW A NRN STREAM...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE UPR MS VLY. SWLY LLJ OF 50-55 KTS HAD
SHIFTED NWD INTO THE OH VLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE LWR GRTLKS TO THE TN VLY. A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING WILL ADVANCE
EWD THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS AND UPR OH VLY THIS AFTN ATTENDANT WITH
THE CDFNT. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER S...CDFNT HAS SURGED INTO THE SABINE RVR VLY AND
SCNTRL TX. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE ROUGHLY 1000 METERS DEEP
COLD DOME AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN
SPORADIC ELEVATED TSTMS FROM SW THROUGH NCNTRL TX. STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY
THIS EVE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY IMPULSE AND ACCELERATION
OF THE SLY LLJ. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE LOW SVR PROBABILITIES.
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