SWODY1
SPC AC 121933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST MON DEC 12 2011
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO REMOVE THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE SERN U.S. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING BEYOND THE REGION OF
CONCERN AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EARLIER THINKING REMAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
ROGUE TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S.
..DARROW.. 12/12/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST MON DEC 12 2011/
...SOUTHEAST...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AT
LATE MORNING. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
RESTRICTED TO THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH REGION.
...SOUTHWEST...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC STATES...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO SRN CA. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR
A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
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