SWODY2
SPC AC 010633
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CST THU DEC 01 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS ON FRI NIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN BAJA CA
AT 12Z/FRI WILL EJECT EWD REACHING NM BY EARLY SAT...AS AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE DROPS SWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH NCEP GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY BECOME CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF
OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE EJECTING IMPULSE...DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE SURFACE PATTERN. NAM AND ETA-BASED SREF MEMBERS INDICATE A COLD
FRONT FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO N-CNTRL TX WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS-BASED SREF MEMBERS
RETREAT THIS BOUNDARY NWWD FRI NIGHT WITH A WEAK CYCLONE FORMING
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING IMPULSE.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FRI NIGHT CHARACTERIZED BY STRENGTHENING
SLYS ATOP THE FRONT. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL ZONE DUE TO
PRECEDING DAYS OF A CP AIR MASS OVER THE WRN GULF.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG FORCING AND CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE WRN
GULF AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK AND LARGELY ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SRN/ERN NM FRI EVENING NEWD TOWARDS
WRN OK OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...BUT THE MEAGER BUOYANCY APPEARS TO PRECLUDE AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE HAIL RISK.
..GRAMS.. 12/01/2011
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