SWODY2
SPC AC 030615
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...
A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR DRT...NEWD ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT OF CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL AR. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THIS COLD DOME SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING CONVECTION
ROOTED NEAR 850 MB JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MORE ELEVATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO SRN OK WHERE TSTMS MAY BE
ROOTED NEAR 700 MB. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR EPISODIC TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD NORTH OF
THE SFC WIND SHIFT.
OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM
JUST ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING PRECIP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR
WHETHER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAN ORGANIZE SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. SO
DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS IT
APPEARS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MEAGER FORCING MAY PRECLUDE DEEP
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE. IF NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
MOIST/BUOYANT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THAN SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION NEAR THE SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE.
..DARROW.. 12/03/2011
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