SWODY2
SPC AC 241643
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST SAT DEC 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED
BY A CUT-OFF LOW -- CENTERED OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE.
...E TX/LA/THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE
DAY 2 ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE SURFACE-BASED STABLE
LAYER COMBINES WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ELEVATED DEEP
CONVECTION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME EXPANSION NWD
ACROSS OK/AR EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE
PERSISTENTLY COOL/STABLE ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER PRECLUDES ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 12/24/2011
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