SWODY2
SPC AC 291705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST THU DEC 29 2011
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE CONUS ON FRI WITH TWO PRIMARY UPPER TROUGHS. THE FIRST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM NRN IL INTO LOWER
MI BY 00Z...CONTINUING INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. FORCING ALONG A
COLD FRONT AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER OH...ERN KY AND INTO WV.
TO THE W...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE
DAY WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING STEEP LAPSE RATE
PROFILES. LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THIS POST
FRONTAL REGIME.
...OH...ERN KY...WV...SWRN OH...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S F...BUT COOLING ALOFT WILL HELP TO
CREATE MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-250 J/KG. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO BOTH COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INTENSITY.
STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY HELP TO MAXIMIZE GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
..JEWELL.. 12/29/2011
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