SWODY3
SPC AC 010817
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST THU DEC 01 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER NM AT 12Z/SAT WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND REACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUN.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PLACEMENT EARLY SAT
/SEE D2 DISCUSSION/...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WEAK CYCLONE SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY SAT EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD IN CNTRL TX AS A STRONG RIDGE NOSES DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS.
...NERN TX/FAR SERN OK...
AS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IMPULSE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
ON SAT...THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUX AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL CORRESPONDINGLY REMAIN WELL N OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S...AN AXIS OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD
FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...SETUP MAY YIELD A CONVECTIVE BAND WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS INTO
EARLY EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL BE STRONGEST /AOA 30 KT/ DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. INITIALLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST A LIMITED
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STILL...WITH ONLY A FEW PRECEDING DAYS
OF MODIFICATION TO A CP AIR MASS OVER THE WRN GULF COUPLED WITH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK.
..GRAMS.. 12/01/2011
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