SWODY3
SPC AC 030808
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE ERN GULF SFC RIDGE. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO SRN KY BY 06/00Z RATHER
THAN HOLD ACROSS CNTRL LA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT EXHIBIT PSEUDO ADIABATIC PROFILES THAT YIELD NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORCE MOST...IF NOT ALL...TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 12/03/2011
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