SWOD48
SPC AC 090952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2011
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BLOCKING WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGHING UPSTREAM...OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE FORECAST OF A VIGOROUS CLOSED
LOW/SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH...THEN
ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FEATURE
LIKELY WILL BE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF RECOVERING FROM A SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS...IT
REMAINS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
MUCH BEYOND A RELATIVELY MINOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INCREASING
MODEL VARIABILITY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK FURTHER AMPLIFIES
UNCERTAINTY...CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..KERR.. 12/09/2011
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