SWOD48
SPC AC 120953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST MON DEC 12 2011
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEEPENING CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE...WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN A
SOUTHERN STREAM...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AS RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN...AND AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES DIGGING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LATTER RIDGE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BUT CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL COLD INTRUSIONS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENTS.
WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AN INCREASING RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
..KERR.. 12/12/2011
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