SWOD48
SPC AC 140931
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES...CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A HIGH LEVEL OF
VARIABILITY CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT
UPPER FLOW REGIME LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AS DOES
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
IT IS AT LEAST FAIR TO SAY THAT THE PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
ASCERTAIN THE RISK FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND THE
GENERAL TRENDS STILL SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL ITSELF IS LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...THE COLD INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WEAKER THAN THE PRIOR ONE OR
TWO...AND MAY BE ABLE TO MODIFY MORE QUICKLY.
..KERR.. 12/14/2011
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