Monday, December 26, 2011

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260931
SWOD48
SPC AC 260930

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER LATE DAY-2 FROPA OFF ATLC COAST...A FEW DAYS DEVOID OF
ORGANIZED SVR RISK ARE PROBABLE...WHILE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES
PATTERN OVER ERN 1/2-2/3 OF CONUS. NEXT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PERTURBATION MAY MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGIONS AROUND DAYS 6-7/31ST-2ND. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
AMPLITUDE/PHASE-SPEED UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ECMWF AND MOST MREF SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR EQUATORWARD IN
MOST SCENARIOS TO SUPPORT AOA 30% SVR RISK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 12/26/2011

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