SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270246
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...FAR SERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270246Z - 270415Z
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN SPATIAL
EXTENT...THE THREAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW TORNADO WATCH.
THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 04Z IS 40 PERCENT.
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1014 MB CYCLONE JUST SE OF PIB WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED SEWD TO NEAR PNS INTO THE NERN GULF. DEW POINTS
HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 64-66 F IN THE NARROW INLAND WARM SECTOR
WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS HOLDING NEAR 67 F. MODIFIED 00Z LIX RAOB AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER
MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 PER MOB/EVX VWP
DATA...AND FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUE...STRONG SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS
DEVELOPING S OF MOBILE BAY COULD YIELD DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RICHER MOIST SECTOR AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE RATHER LIMITED N OF THE 31ST
PARALLEL.
..GRAMS.. 12/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 31298873 31358843 31438799 31328682 31018587 30698581
30308588 30268673 30168766 30178874 31298873
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