SWODY1
SPC AC 120100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...
...COASTAL THROUGH CNTRL NC...
EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN
NC ENEWD INTO THE NRN OUTER BANKS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SWD FROM
THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL SC. AS OF 00Z...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT PERSIST INCLUDING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM NRN
PORTIONS OF GULF STREAM THROUGH ERN NC AS WELL AS ACROSS WCNTRL NC
ALONG CONVERGENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT NEWD EJECTING VORT
MAX. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST IN WARM
SECTOR FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50 KT SLY LLJ.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE
SUPPORTED BY THE HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NRN GULF.
FARTHER INLAND...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE RENDERED
THE ATMOSPHERE MUCH LESS UNSTABLE IN ERN NC WARM SECTOR.
FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP CONVERGENCE WITH EJECTING VORT MAX WILL
MAINTAIN A BAND OF MOSTLY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH THE ERN NC
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ARE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY GIVEN
THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HAVE MAINTAINED
A SMALL SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE OUTER BANKS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
SUPERCELLS OVER THE NRN GULF.
..DIAL.. 01/12/2012
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