Tuesday, January 31, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310555
SWODY1
SPC AC 310554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE EWD IN BOTH THE NRN STREAM /ROUGHLY N OF
40N/...AND THE SRN STREAM /ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES/. THE
PATTERN WILL...HOWEVER...BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW NEAR 150W TURNS SEWD INTO WA/ORE BY 12Z WED. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SRN IMPULSE NOW OVER SE TX SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES TODAY...WHILE UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW IN CA TRACKS ESE TO FAR W TX BY 12Z WED.

SFC LOW MOVING E ACROSS THE GRT LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN
STREAM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD CURRENT OF SW TO WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW
FROM E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TO THE UPR OH VLY/NERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE SE
ACROSS THE UPR/MID MS VLYS AND SRN PLNS BY 12Z WED. BUT ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AXIS OF CONFLUENCE/UPLIFT WITHIN THE
GRADUALLY MOISTENING LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
TO ZONE OF UPLIFT ALONG SHALLOW BOUNDARY MARKING THE NRN EDGE OF
MARITIME AIR MASS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST.

...E TX AND CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE OH VLY...
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM E TX INTO THE LWR TN/OH VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S F SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E TX BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH VALUES IN THE LWR
50S EXTENDING AS FAR N AS SRN IL/ID TNGT/EARLY WED.
WHILE THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOSTER SOME DESTABILIZATION...
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES.
ALTHOUGH MUCAPE MAY REACH 500-800 J/KG OVER E TX...VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN AOA 250 J/KG OVER THE OH VLY.

ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ALONG SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE
TX GULF CST THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEPARTING UPR IMPULSE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FORM OVER
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF CSTL PLN LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
SFC HEATING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR
ASCENT.

OTHER SCTD/EPISODIC AREAS OF TSTMS MAY FORM TNGT THROUGH EARLY WED
FROM NE TX AND ERN OK ENE INTO PARTS OF THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS...IN
ZONE OF MOISTENING/CONFLUENCE/WAA ALONG AFOREMENTIONED LLJ. FARTHER
S...A SEPARATE...MORE SUSTAINED AND CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY/TNGT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
LOW LVL WAA ATOP SHALLOW STNRY FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT LINGERS THROUGH WED MORNING AND AFFECTS SRN PORTIONS OF
LA AND MS. ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...AND MODEST WIND
FIELD...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 01/31/2012

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