SWODY1
SPC AC 090041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2012
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX...LA...MS...AL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THIS EVENING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN TX INTO CNTRL
LA...MS...AND AL. S OF THIS FRONT...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER 60S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OVER
AL/MS AND UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG LA INTO TX.
ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...AIDED
BY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. A FEW
CORES MAY CONTAIN HAIL...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY HAIL
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. THIS W-E ZONE OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DRIFT NWD ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WITH WEAK
WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER DEEP S TX BUT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LIKELY. A WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB WILL
LIMIT THE SWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE
THE WINDOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR.
THUS...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL OVERNIGHT FROM CNTRL
TX INTO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.
..JEWELL.. 01/09/2012
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