SWODY1
SPC AC 241303
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW...S
CNTRL...AND E CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH NOW ON THE AZ-NM BORDER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E OR ESE
TODAY...EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER FAR W TX BY EVE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BECOME FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS EARLY
WED...AND CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE TO THE TX BIG BEND.
APPROACH OF UPR SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN/ENHANCE BROAD AREA OF LOW LVL
CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY IN PROGRESS OVER ERN NM/W TX. THIS LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY REFORM/CONSOLIDATE SEWD ALONG OR JUST S OF THE RIO GRANDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING E TO SELY SFC FLOW OVER MUCH OF TX.
INCREASING MOISTURE...LOW LVL CONVERGENCE...AND UPLIFT IN THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AND TNGT OVER THE SRN PLNS...ALONG AND N OF SLOWLY
ADVANCING W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER DEEP S TX. SOME OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OCCURRING THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY WED FROM
S CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL TX...COULD BECOME SVR.
...TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH S CNTRL TX/HILL COUNTRY TO THE
TX CSTL PLN TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
INCREASING SFC TO 850 MB MOISTURE INFLOW AND UPLIFT ALONG AND N OF
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCTD AREAS OF MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS OVER PARTS AND CNTRL AND E TX TODAY...WITH WARM
LAYER ALOFT PROHIBITING DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR OVER S TX. WHILE
ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...RELATIVELY MODEST
WIND FIELD AND ELEVATED NATURE OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT
SVR THREAT.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK MAY EVOLVE VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR...MORE
LIKELY...EARLY THIS EVE FROM ERN PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN S/SE TO
THE TX BIG BEND. COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/MID LVL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW...AND DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG N-S LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. WIND
PROFILES AND THERMODYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY WED AS UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SSW-NNE SQLN.
INCREASING...NEARLY MERIDIONAL 50-70 KT MID AND UPR LVL
FLOW...STRENGTHENING UPR DIVERGENCE...AND CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/...WILL ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT OF
EMBEDDED LEWPS AND ROTATING STORMS. AT THE SAME TIME...PERSISTENT
ELY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SFC WINDS MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...THROUGH
12Z WED.
..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 01/24/2012
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