SWODY1
SPC AC 170059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OZARKS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
AMID STRONG/BROADLY CYCLONIC LONGWAVE UPPER FLOW...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REFLECTS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE STEADILY ADVANCING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA AS OF
MID-EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY...WITH 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMMON ACROSS THE NEAR-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR AND LOWER 60S F ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR STORMS TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE
A MODESTLY MOIST/RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT ISOLATED
BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A HIGH DEGREE OF SHEAR.
S/SE OF THE OZARKS AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN A CAPPING LAYER BETWEEN 800-850
MB AS PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM SHV/LZK. HOWEVER...THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT AND/OR MOIST CONFLUENCE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. IF SO...A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND/OR HAIL MAY EXIST.
..GUYER.. 01/17/2012
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