SWODY1
SPC AC 060457
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST THU JAN 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE CONUS TODAY. GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE /EXCEPT NEAR THE GULF
COAST/...NONE WILL CREATE MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS. THE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER MS VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SEWD
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE WRN GULF TRACKS E/NEWD NEAR THE GULF COAST.
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING WILL EXIST
NEAR THE FAR SE TX COAST INTO SRN MS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
FINALLY...A THIRD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AMPLIFYING AS IT TRACKS S/SEWD THROUGH CA/NV.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES EWD INTO
ERN CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE OH AND
TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...FAR SE TX COAST INTO SRN MS...
WHILE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WRN
GULF COAST TODAY /DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONALLY...WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
INHIBIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE MUCAPE APPROACHING 750-1000 J/KG.
THEREFORE EXPECT VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
WITHOUT ANY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...KEEPING THUNDER PROBS
BELOW 10 PERCENT.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 01/06/2012
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