SWODY1
SPC AC 161243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
AZ...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED INTO PARTS OF
MO/IL AFTER DARK. CAPE VALUES WILL BE WEAK...BUT STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
OVER NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHEAST KS AROUND 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO BE NEAR-SURFACE-BASED WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH A RISK OF
ORGANIZED OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS. IF CONVECTION CAN BE
SUSTAINED...THE STRONGER CELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...WITH A CONTINUED LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER UPDATES FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 01/16/2012
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