SWODY1
SPC AC 162000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AREA...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT INTO MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
ABOVE NWD RETURNING AXIS OF 55-60F DEWPOINTS. MEANWHILE...ZONE OF
DEEPER ASCENT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A CAP RESULTING FROM THE EWD
ADVECTING EML WILL PROBABLY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WHEN FORCING ALONG AND POSSIBLY JUST AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETER
SPACE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER
COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT IS NOT SUFFIENT FOR MORE THAN 5%
PROBABILITIES...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK ON THE 01Z UPDATE.
..DIAL.. 01/16/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/
...OZARKS/LWR OH VLY...
DESERT SW MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVE AND
THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT. WEAK SFC LOW W OF KMKC AT 16Z WILL DEVELOP
NEWD TO CHICAGO BY 12Z/17. A TRAILING CDFNT WILL BE SWEEPING SEWD
INTO THE OZARKS...SRN OK AND W TX BY DAYBREAK TUE.
LLVL MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 DEG F/ WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NEWD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU AHEAD OF THE CDFNT THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TIED TO
THE APPROACHING WAVE...MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
FROM THE LWR OH VLY SWWD INTO ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BY THIS
EVE.
WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED WITH MAJORITY OF PCPN EVENT
OVERNIGHT ROOTED JUST ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
SUCH...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 00-03Z ALONG
THE NRN OK/SRN KS BORDER REGION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO
SPREAD ATOP THE LLVL MOIST AXIS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN EVOLVE ENE AS
BANDS OF TSTMS ACROSS THE MO/AR OZARKS AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY
LATE TONIGHT. STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS EXPECTED...BUT BUOYANCY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLD ROBUST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MAYBE A SVR HAILSTONE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED
STORMS THAT EVOLVE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF EVE ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE
ROOTED SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE SFC FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER. WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
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