SWODY1
SPC AC 110045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MS...AL...AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...
...MS/AL/GA/FL...
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN TX WILL CONTINUE EWD AND WILL
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS LA AND INTO MS BY MORNING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER SERN AR WILL DEEPEN MAINLY AFTER
00-03Z...RESTING ACROSS NRN AL BY 12Z. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH
HEIGHT FALLS WILL WORK TO STRENGTHEN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM
SERN LA/FAR ERN MS AT 03Z EWD INTO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THUS FAR HAS BEEN
INSTABILITY...WHICH HAS BEEN WEAK DUE TO AN MCS THAT MOVED OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. SOME CLEARING
OCCURRED JUST BEFORE SUNSET OVER LA AND WRN MS...BENEATH THE
MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT. HERE...A COLD FRONT WAS QUASI-STATIONARY AT
00Z...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN MS. THESE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION...BUT POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS MITIGATED STORM INTENSITY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY DUE TO COOLING ALOFT OVER A RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 58-62 F RANGE. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY OVER AL LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR WRN GA BY 12Z. WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE...SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN ROTATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 01/11/2012
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