SWODY2
SPC AC 220646
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING NNEWD TOWARD ERN CANADA THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW DOING LIKEWISE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION EARLY WILL CONTINUE
EWD...LIKELY REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH INITIALLY JUST OFF THE CA COAST IS
PROGGED TO DIG SEWD INTO THE DESERT SW...WITH WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST OVER NM/FAR W TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD/AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT
WEAKENS. STILL...WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A DAMAGING GUST
OR ISOLATED TORNADO.
...COASTAL NC...
AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE...INTERACTION WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ADVECTING NWD ACROSS FAR ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS OFF THE GULF
STREAM MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLY A
VERY LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ATTM -- THREAT APPEARS QUITE LIMITED --
AND THUS A NARROW/COASTAL 5% AREA APPEARS SUFFICIENT.
..GOSS.. 01/22/2012
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