SWODY2
SPC AC 161731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. VORT MAX NOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL EJECT
INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ANOTHER
IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE OH...TN
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
A RESERVOIR OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE WRN GULF
AND SRN TX WILL RETURN NEWD ALONG A SWLY LLJ AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TUESDAY...WHILE A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTS EWD
ABOVE THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL
WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUD FORMATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY IN PERIOD FROM WRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. EWD ADVECTING EML WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A CAP TO SURFACE BASED STORMS IN LOWER MS VALLEY
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY POCKETS OF DIABATIC WARMING WHERE
LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
THE LLJ TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR...RESULTING IN TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN SUFFICIENT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 UPDATES.
..DIAL.. 01/16/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment