Saturday, January 7, 2012

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071727
SWODY2
SPC AC 071727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG AND E OF THE
ROCKIES...AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN CANADA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS SSE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH CUTTING OFF
FROM THE NRN STREAM ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY
FROM SC WSWWD THROUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES TO AN INFLECTION POINT IN NERN TX...WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
THEN EXTEND SWWD TO S TX. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER NERN
MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES AND APPROACHES W TX.

...SRN AND ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY AND N OF THE
FRONT FROM LA/SRN AR TO PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL GA. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR MOIST CONVECTION WILL
BE WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF A FLAT RIDGE.
WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WSWWD INTO E...S AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX IN VICINITY AND N OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY AN INCREASE MOISTURE/WAA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO S/SELY AND
STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW TOWARD W TX.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS NEAR THE TX COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER
AND SLOWLY REDUCE A MIDLEVEL INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE OF THE LLJ...THE SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 01/07/2012

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