SWODY2
SPC AC 041657
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST WED JAN 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25 IN OR LESS. TWO AREAS WHERE MOISTURE
IS CONSIDERABLY MORE IS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND ALONG A
CORRIDOR OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
THIS LATTER REGION OVER THE WRN GULF IS OF SOME CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DEEP CONVECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO NERN
MEXICO/SOUTH TX THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING/DEEPENING SWLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
VALLEY REGION OF DEEP SOUTH TX. WHILE BUOYANCY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE
INADEQUATE IN THE GENERATION OF UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND
NOT PARTICULARLY FOCUSED. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INCLUDE A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST MAINTAINING LESS THAN 10% PROBABILITY
FOR LIGHTNING.
..DARROW.. 01/04/2012
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