SWODY3
SPC AC 250829
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY LIFTING ENEWD AND SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM AND GFS
BEGIN DIFFERING A BIT WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A
SLOWER-MOVING CLOSED LOW UNTIL AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM DEPICTS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SLOWER GFS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW OVER GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH TO THE NORTH HAS
MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
MAINTAINS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FRONTAL WAVE...BUT ALSO MOVES THE
FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT MAJOR...THEY DO AFFECT DETAILS OF THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND PARTICULARLY OVER
FL...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
...THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING PARTS OF FL AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONT TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...ONGOING STORMS /ALONG WITH LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT/ WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD...THOUGH WITH OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY AGAIN HINDERED BY VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY.
BY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT TO SERN AND
ERN GA AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE ATLANTIC. SOME LIMITED THREAT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS FL
-- WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT AMPLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF UPPER WAVE PASSAGE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND SERN GA AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...AND THEN BY
EVENING ACROSS FL WITH THE LOSS OF MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL
THERMODYNAMIC ASSISTANCE.
..GOSS.. 01/25/2012
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